🎢 Overarching Themes
Trend: Market in Uptrend.
Narrative: The AI Bubble thesis is intact but we’re at a critical check-in point.
Market Cap Expansion 3 trillion & beyond: MSFT, NVDA, and AAPL.
Drivers: AI, robotics, crypto, cybersecurity, software — still leading.
📊 Weekly Themes:
Birds eye view remains intact.
High volume closes hold and traction persists beyond those levels.
If we lose a slew of these pivots, we “MAY” be in for base.
Mega caps remain stable.
Economic Calendar Highlights
Wednesday, Aug 20
🛢 Crude Oil Inventories
📄 FOMC Meeting Minutes
Thursday, Aug 21
📉 Initial Jobless Claims – 227K (prev 224K)
🏭 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index – 5.9 (sharp drop from 15.9)
📊 Manufacturing PMI (Aug) – 49.9 (slightly above forecast, but contraction zone <50)
📊 Services PMI (Aug) – 53.3 (down from 55.7)
🏠 Existing Home Sales (Jul) – 3.92M
Friday, Aug 22
🎤 Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Notable Earnings Next Week
Retail / Consumer:
Walmart (WMT) – key consumer bellwether
Home Depot (HD), Lowe’s (LOW) – housing/consumer spending
Target (TGT), Ross (ROST), TJX – discount & apparel trends
Tech / AI / Software:
Intuit (INTU) – SaaS / financial tech
Palo Alto Networks (PANW) – cybersecurity
Analog Devices (ADI) – semis (AI supply chain insight)
Workday (WDAY), Zoom (ZM) – enterprise SaaS
Baidu (BIDU) – China AI/search
Healthcare / Biotech:
Medtronic (MDT) – medical devices
Estee Lauder (EL) – discretionary/beauty trends
Energy / Materials:
BHP, Woodside (WDS), Gold Fields (GFI) – commodities check (iron ore, oil, gold)
China ADRs / EM Exposure:
XPeng (XPEV), Full Truck Alliance (YMM), iQIYI (IQ), Bilibili (BILI) – China demand pulse
Thoughts:
Thesis
The overarching framework hasn’t shifted — priority remains fixed. There are endless small variables I could dig into, but that only risks clouding judgment and pushing us toward the wrong conclusions. To keep it direct: $20,000 and beyond continues to be my base case.
Breadth (NASI)
The NASI offered a tentative turn early in the week, only to lose momentum and roll over. That leaves open the possibility of a grind lower, perhaps even a test of the 10 level. While that remains speculative, the practical takeaway is clear: core names should be held while the market recharges and builds fresh demand. Once breadth decisively flips, there’s a high likelihood of a second opportunity to accumulate leaders and quickly layer in insurance gains.
Defensive Positioning
A period of consolidation or base-building in core leaders wouldn’t be out of the ordinary, nor would it undermine the broader thesis. In fact, it would serve to reinforce structural strength. Still, it’s worth being selective — you don’t want exposure to names where you lack insurance gains if that scenario plays out, particularly with how extended some runs have become.
Leadership Watch
Several high-conviction names are coiling and teasing breakouts. GOOGL stands as a key example, and the way it trades on any weakness should provide early signals on the trajectory ahead.
Bottom Line
The stance is unchanged — still decisively bullish. Whether the next development is base formation or a surge of demand, both outcomes ultimately validate the thesis and set up a continuation higher.
Market Indices
The indices continue to push higher, with the Nasdaq Composite sitting ~2% above its 20-day. Using 1998 as a historical reference point, once that breakout gained traction the move extended roughly 25% before establishing a new base that lasted from Feb - October. Not suggesting we’re guaranteed a replay, but it’s worth keeping in mind as a framework for what a sustained extension could look like.
Institutional Stocks:
AMZN showing the breakout it’s been working on best on this weekly chart, daily structure is lacking still so may need a bit more time before it can go, however it’s in my opinion cup and handle esk.
GOOGL teasing the breakout level here, tried Friday but didn’t have the power, likely has room to $240 if it can breakout.
MSFT chopping around below the HVC but above the 20 day and the $500 level, perhaps a base is on the way unless it can take out the $533.50 HVC.
META up and over it’s earnings HVC, acting great, we shall see if it needs a revisit of lower levels or it can gain some traction and velocity here.
NFLX recovered it’s HVC after starting to look like it may be in trouble after a monster run, if this is a sign for the types of bases we are going to get, we are going way higher.
Growth Stocks:
We have had some big moves in these off the lows but many have yet to even breakout yet…
AMD getting close to testing it’s breakout level but has some supply from the left side of the chart it needs to work through, wouldn’t be surprised to see it accelerate to ath’s.
NVDA weekly chart as since we honed in on the $150 pivotal point, we just had our first down week of 1%, let the move digest, see whats to come from here.
TSLA just chopping around in a base, holding 1t, the pivot I think is clear where it’ll be ready is the $350 level. One trillion and the $350 level is where we are tightening up at.
Post-earnings, PLTR hasn’t shown the most convincing HVC, though it did manage to find support at that level Friday. These are the types of names that could shift into base-building if that support gives way.
A base here wouldn’t be ideal, but the playbook is straightforward:
With massive gains → consider trimming, lock some in.
Without insurance gains → there’s little reason to hold through a potential base.
ALAB with a top 2-3 HVC in it’s chart, holding it well, and have in my back pocket that this could go to 50b or more. It’s not much beyond the breakout level.
CRWV massive HVC right at $100
NET consolidating below the breakout level from a few years back.
MU I am interested to see how this one acts as it’s pulling back a bit, does it find demand?
SE with a fresh high volume close right at 100b market cap.
UBER stalled a bit at the $100 level but could be gearing up to take that level out.
TEM volume pouring in last week, great theme of healthcare x AI.
HIMS if you want exposure, it’s right at 10b here, like the idea of snagging it on weakness as it’s quite volatile.
TAN, is solar coming alive? So far exhibiting character change and volume sticks that are signs of the times changing.
SEDG with similar action.
Flipping through some leading stocks from 1998 ish lens.
I want to dig into some of the leading stocks during the 1998 run and how they behaved so we have a better gauge today. I’ve already covered the Nasdaq Composite in detail, so it’s worth shifting focus to individual names — specifically the ones still around. My window is from the point where the Nasdaq broke out above 2,000 to the eventual peak.
AMZN at the time ran from $20 to $100, and what stands out is that it triple-topped well ahead of the market indices.
MSFT essentially doubled from the indices breaking out and wasnt a smooth ride at all. It did have an incredible run prior to this last move it had.
INTC was about a 3x from the indices breaking out to it’s eventual top.
CSCO had about a 4x from the indices breaking out to it’s eventual top.
ORCL had major velocity, nearly a 10x at the time.
NVDA had major velocity, 5x but was very volatile at the time.
EBAY, insane move off an IPO, didn’t even realize how crazy this was at the time.
My takeaway is we may be more 1995 than 1998, perhaps this move extends through 2030, lets not get crazy but it’s a back pocket thought for now.