Weekend Review
Breath Expanding? Earnings and FOMC this month.
🎢 Overarching Thesis
Trend: Sideways digestion within a bigger uptrend.
Narrative: AI Bubble.
Structural Arc: $3T → $10T cycle intact. NVDA $5T → $10T still the second half.
Thoughts:
Memory names accelerated hard and now look ready to pause. Indices have already been doing that work — sideways above the 50-day since the beginning of June, roughly three weeks of digestion tightening up. Two major high volume closes cluster around $705–$707 on QQQ; call $705 the line. NASI has heated up to 69, in the 69–90 zone where you get quick moves in both directions — could push higher, but the tape isn’t showing that yet. Could also just mean the rally is broadening.
NVDA below $5T but not broken. GOOG below its $384 HVC but holding the $349–350 breakout level after some drama. QQQ needs to hold $705. Adding MU to the list — $1000 matters even with lower HVCs underneath. Tesla gave a quick pump and dump; $391.95 is the level. Could get its mojo back, or not.
FOMC at the end of the month is the next event, then earnings kick off the week after. Positioning into both. Nothing has broken — the danger zones remain untested. Sideways here, waiting for the spot.
NVDA I keep going back to the 5 trillion level as the level for the market and of course the stock, stock only modestly up relative to other AI names over the last year.
AMD essentially sideways/basing since reaching the $500 level.
TSLA simple enough, this is the level I care about until we can discuss $500 again.
GOOGL below the major HVC we discussed but undercut and rally at the breakout level.
HOOD testing the 100b market cap after rushing through $100, could see some moves in these names that have been dull.
PLTR another example, similar to hood.
MU and the discussion has been memory lately, so think their action is important here. Hanging onto the danger zone but meaningful drawdown from recent highs, stocks been moving so do think this move is warranted, question is how market treats it from here.
WDC example of quick move to the 50 day here. What now?
LLY pushing higher and holding up well. More of the market is broadening story here.
SNOW holding up relative to it’s recent move, if you look left you see the most recent HVC inline with previous HVC.
200 week action: MSFT and ORCL
