🎢 Overarching Themes
Trend: Market in uptrend.
Narrative: AI Bubble thesis intact; another check-in week.
Market-Cap Expansion (>$3T): MSFT, NVDA, AAPL.
Drivers: AI, semis/compute, cybersecurity, software, robotics, crypto—still leading.
📊 Weekly Themes
FOMC the highlight of the week
Reaction
Reaction to reaction most important, has been some delayed reactions more recently
TSLA in focus
NASI possible power wave building.
🏛️ Key Economic Data – Week of Sept 16
Tuesday (Sep 16)
Core Retail Sales (Aug)
Retail Sales (Aug)
Wednesday (Sep 17)
Crude Oil Inventories
FOMC Day: Economic Projections, Statement, Fed Rate Decision (expected 4.25%), Press Conference
Thursday (Sep 18)
Initial Jobless Claims
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Sep)
💼 Earnings
Tuesday (Sep 16) – FedEx (FDX), Ferguson (FERG)
Wednesday (Sep 17) – Lennar (LEN), General Mills (GIS), FactSet (FDS)
Thursday (Sep 18) – Darden Restaurants (DRI), Dave & Buster’s (PLAY), Cracker Barrel (CBRL), Manchester United (MANU)
🧭 Overall Thoughts
This is one of those stretches I like least on the calendar—FOMC weeks. History says it’s often better to step back, let the market digest the decision and projections, and revisit once the dust settles. A number of leaders already needed some digestion, and the added Fed volatility could widen the range of that consolidation. If we do get a sharp post-FOMC push, I wouldn’t chase it; positioning from the past few weeks already provides exposure, and some key stocks have quietly pushed through pivots.
What we still haven’t seen is a true breadth thrust. If that arrives—confirmed by the NASI driving higher and pivots getting reclaimed—then the more concentrated strategy we’ve discussed remains the plan. My focus stays on TSLA, AMD, PLTR, and NVDA as the core portfolio names.
A few newer setups continue to impress and deserve a spot on the watchlist for potential entries: ALAB, CRDO, HOOD, SHOP, with China ADRs, quantum plays, and select solar names starting to perk up as well.
For this week, the emphasis is on observing the tea leaves for clues on imminent direction. Whether it’s a “sell the news” reaction or an upside breadth surge, the goal is to read the signals as they develop and stay patient rather than forcing trades. AMZN continues to set up for an all-time-high breakout, but even there, discipline and careful observation remain the priority.
The Nasdaq Advance/Decline Summation Index (NASI) continues to consolidate near the lows, leaving its next move undecided. It’s still unclear whether a power wave is building or if the indicator will curl lower. The outcome will largely depend on pivot action in individual leaders, which makes next week’s stock-by-stock reactions critical for confirming broader breadth strength.
📉 Market Indices
The major indices have broken higher, and the character of the move still feels more like a lockout rally than a widely anticipated advance. The prevailing theme remains that a large portion of the crowd is underinvested, which adds fuel if momentum persists. Conditions are admittedly a tad stretched for new exposure, especially highly indexed exposure, and it will be interesting to see how things evolve following the FOMC meeting.
Despite the near-term extension, the market structure remains healthy. The setup still allows for a potential breadth thrust and larger upside push, especially given the current positioning of the NASI. The next few sessions should reveal whether this is merely another digestion phase or the beginning of a stronger, more inclusive leg higher.
The Nasdaq Composite delivered a clear push last week, breaking through its recent range and reinforcing the uptrend. In the context of our ongoing comparison to the 1998 market, the pattern continues to rhyme: if momentum holds, the next logical leg projects toward roughly $25,000 before a meaningful consolidation sets in.
1998 comparison.
Institutional Stocks:
Apple has been remarkably dull, but its technical setup is quietly improving. A low-risk entry against the recent pivot (highlighted below) is worth considering for anyone looking to establish or add AAPL exposure while the broader market digests. Overall it’s more of a positive to the market than a negative.
MSFT with a little drama but back above the $500 level, again not an entry for me but a healthy sign for the market overall.
We discussed $240ish as the possible upside for GOOGL on the breakout, now sitting just a tad below the 3 trillion market cap, healthy sign for the market especially if it can push above that pivotal point.
AMZN one of the best setups this week, looks like it wants to make amove to all time highs, if no follow through on this short leg lower, likely gets picked up quickly and sees a move to all time highs with $270ish in order.
NFLX right at 500b with an impressive live event put on this week for boxing, more to come from them, key here is the 500b market cap.
Growth Stocks:
They have been selective but with some decent stock picking especially around AI this cohort has put up some impressive numbers recently, think there is plenty more juice in the lemon, given some caveats of some key pivots getting taken out.
NVDA with the breadth of the market if you will, looking for higher lows from here, the main level I have my eye on is 5 trillion, if we are able to take that level out, think there is another double in this name. As long as higher lows persist, think this AI move continues.
TSLA TSLA TSLA finally pushing meaningfully the $350 level after some back and forth, worth noting this is a 4 year base that continues to persist. We put a lot of emphasis on both one trillion market cap and the $350 level, both have proven to be important levels given the recent consolidation and the volume and move recently through $350 is confirmation for me, this move could finally just be starting. As I have been saying, I think this is the best name in the market and has been discounted for quite some time.
PLTR hooks higher following it’s consolidation, good sign if it can hold and trend higher, also a key level here will be 500b market cap and if it hold that level vs topping, if so likely another double in this one as well. Some of these thoughts sound crazy but remember our overarching theme is AI bubble.
AMD basing a bit as we suspected, it quickly doubled into a decent amount of supply from the left side of it’s chart, key areas in this on is $165ish - $172ish, once it can take out that price range, should be ready to go.
ALAB no real entry here but given the recent extension how it acts this week or from here in general will be interesting, took a small trim in this name, willing to add that piece back with positive price action.
HOOD right at 100b, constructive action sitting above it, wait and see mode for me mostly if it wants to digest this market cap or if that market still believes it’s cheap.
CRDO similar to ALAB, a bit of an extension but has been one of the strongest stocks in the market with every dip getting picked up, dont think this is an entry but if you get some volatility that presents one, worth eyeing to see if it’s a pitch you want to swing at.
Additional names of interest:
CRCL would prefer a sideways range and then a range break to trigger a buy, name has great velocity.
CRWV similar to CRCL.
DASH quietly been a performer but has been more of a grind, could be in for a good bout of velocity.
NBIS still setup well for a reclaim, especially with the $100 level and the HVC paired so closely together.
