🎢 Overarching Themes
Trend: Market in Uptrend.
Narrative: The AI Bubble thesis is intact but we’re at a critical check-in point.
Market Cap Expansion 3 trillion & beyond: MSFT, NVDA, and AAPL.
Drivers: AI, robotics, crypto, cybersecurity, software — still leading.
📊 Weekly Themes:
Big week with FOMC and mega-cap earnings.
Will get a slew of high volume closes and clues that follow.
Brace for a pullback but expecting character change if it comes.
Fine with a melt up but want to mentally prepare for a pullback.
Nasdaq Composite $20,000, TSLA $350, NVDA $150.
These are the upside hurdles where our “AI Bubble” thesis comes alive.
📆 Earnings & Economic Calendar (Week of July 28–Aug 2, 2025)
This is a heavyweight week with Fed, inflation, labor, and tech leadership all in focus. It could shape the next leg of this rally — or bring in volatility.
🧨 Key Earnings:
Mega-Cap Tech:
MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, META, QCOM, ARM
AI & Crypto Adjacents:
COIN, HOOD, MSTR, NET, SPOT, RBLX, RDDT
Growth & Industrials:
VRT, PYPL, CVNA, DXCM, PWR, UPS, RACE
Energy & Health:
XOM, CVX, SHEL, UNH, ABBV, WM, SOFI, ALB, FSLR
With most of the AI leadership reporting, we’ll get a strong read on earnings season’s tone and whether this rally has fuel or fizzles.
📊 Economic Events:
Wednesday (Jul 30)
FOMC Statement & Rate Decision (2:00 PM)
GDP Q2 (QoQ) – Forecast: 2.4%
Thursday (Jul 31)
Core PCE (YoY/ MoM) – Inflation watch
Initial Jobless Claims
Friday (Aug 1)
Nonfarm Payrolls – Forecast: 108K vs prior 147K
Unemployment Rate – Forecast: 4.2%
Manufacturing & ISM PMI
This is the most macro-heavy week of the quarter, so expect reactions — especially if earnings and data diverge.
🎢 Thoughts
The market remains in lockout rally mode, with the Nasdaq holding above 20,000 and leadership names like NVDA, TSLA, and AMD continuing to show strong character. The breakout we've been anticipating has followed through, and price action is still confirming our long-held AI bubble thesis. We're now entering one of the most pivotal weeks of the quarter — not just because of the stacked earnings calendar (MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, META), but also because of the macro events lined up (FOMC, GDP, PCE, Jobs). This is the type of week that can either broaden leadership or introduce the volatility we've been mentally preparing for. Still, the trend remains intact, character across core names is holding, and new growth setups are surfacing each day. In short: don’t fade strength, stay focused on core positions, and be open to selectively adding as setups emerge. If this truly is a generational AI-driven run, the mistake isn’t being early — it’s getting off too soon.
📈 Indices
The indices remain in full lockout mode, and our $20,000 pivotal level on the Nasdaq Composite has proven to be spot-on, judging by the price action that followed.
That said, last week I noted the importance of mentally preparing for a pullback — even a healthy one. A 10-day or 20-day retest would be well within the bounds of normal character and wouldn’t invalidate the broader move.
Since we’ve referenced the 1998 market structure so often, it’s worth revisiting: back then, the Nasdaq broke above 2,000, ran to ~2,500, and only then took a breather. If we’re following a similar script, let the market run — forcing a top here could be premature.
My 2 cents: Don’t fade strength. Let the trend unfold.
Nasdaq Composite, 6% ish push through the pivotal point riding the 10 day.
🏢 Institutional Stocks
A slew of earnings is hitting from this group — and while the action has been selective, plenty of large- and mega-cap names continue to perform.
AAPL
Reports Thursday
Sitting at the top of its recent range, above the $3T market cap, but still below the 200 SMA.
Personally, I lean more bullish than bearish given where it’s sitting.
A gap-down high-volume close would be a buying opportunity, in my view.
But if it fails that level, it may be signaling something deeper.
MSFT
Reports Wednesday
Has been in full lockout mode since late April, riding the 10-day all the way.
Cleared the $500 level — I wouldn’t be surprised to see some base-building around here.
A gap-down pullback toward the 50/65-day would be the natural spot to watch.
AMZN
Reports Thursday
Still consolidating in its weekly base, but I remain very bullish here.
I think there’s a lot more juice in this lemon, especially relative to its peers.
META
Reports Wednesday
Starting to base right under all-time highs, hovering near the $2T market cap.
Strong setup forming, likely in the early stages of another move if earnings confirm.
NVDA
Continues to ride the 10-day EMA since the breakout at $150, and now above $4 trillion.
The market keeps buying every dip here — until that behavior changes, the trend is intact.
TSLA
Tightening up: higher lows, lower highs — likely prepping for a move.
Holding $1 trillion market cap cleanly, which is the core of the long-term thesis.
I think Elon nailed it: the move to $5T+ will come from what’s in the pipeline, robots and autonomy.
Personally, I’m positioned with enough cost basis room to ride out the short-term noise and stay focused on the long game.
🚀 Growth Stocks
What I said last week still holds — and I’ll repeat it here with a few new names worth watching:
We’re starting to see the growth space mature. While we haven’t seen that full-on “all-go” moment yet, the leaders continue grinding higher, and fresh names are pushing through pivots daily.
That said, I continue to favor holding core names rather than jumping from breakout to breakout. In melt-up conditions, focused exposure typically wins over scattered attempts.
Core AI Names
TSLA, NVDA, AMD, PLTR
These remain my highest conviction names within the broader AI theme — highly liquid, widely owned, and still structurally intact.
Crypto-Adjacent Leaders
HOOD, COIN, MSTR
Momentum is building here again. All three have strong narratives tied to crypto exposure and platform growth, with earnings catalysts on deck.
MP
Double gap-up on major volume and flagging nicely here. Likely has more to go. If not in yet, be patient — look for an opportunity on a clean setup if it presents itself.
ARM
Earnings this week. Structurally very clean, coiling near the top of its range. A high-volume close post-earnings could be a strong signal.
AMD
If you had no position until now, this $168–170 zone has been resistance. It’s now building pressure right into that level. A clean break could lead to another leg higher.
NET
Also setting up well into earnings. Structure looks tight — one of the better-looking weekly bases in the growth cohort.
HIMS
Bit of a wild name, but got a high-volume close with immediate traction. Earnings on 8/4. This one fits well as a speculative growth swing.
TEM
Similar to HIMS, but more speculative. Starting to act a bit more orderly, but might need time. Earnings due 8/8.
