🎢 Overarching Themes
Trend: Market in Uptrend
AI Bubble: Still early innings, lead by themes in - AI, robotics, crypto, cybersecurity, and software.
3 Trillion Club & Market Cap Expansion: MSFT, NVDA, and AAPL.
Outlook: Expecting a choppy and volatile 2025 as these trends evolve. Possibly a smoother second half of the year as uncertainty diminishes.
Update (4/20/2025): I believe we’re approaching a point where uncertainty may begin to decrease rather than increase. It’s still early, but the trend seems to be shifting in that direction.
📊 Weekly Themes:
Character change, eyes on 20 day and 200 sma
NASI Hooking lower, still hot.
Character Change
Nasdaq Composite $20,000, TSLA $350, NVDA $150.
These are the upside hurdles where price can go “crazy.”
📆 Earnings & Economic Calendar
Earnings:
AVGO CRWD LULU IOT DG DLTR RBRK GWRE DOCU MDB CIEN CRDO NIO FIVE ASAN MANU
Economic Calendar:
I just want to share my thoughts as they come this week.
First a look at the internals, we discussed the hook of the NASI, it’s still working it’s way lower, to the tune of a few more weeks probably, it’s been moving fast so could happen sooner, I ultimately see the 10-30 range as the next time to really get aggresive for another move higher. I am in hold mode for core positions though nonetheless but not looking to swing trade much here, more a bit of caution.
For the indices, we discussed the 20k level as the major pivotal point from here and that likely between this general area in the indices to the 20k level is where the market tries to take our shares. I dont see much as changing but there are a few levels to point out. You can see the 20k level up above the in the NASDAQ but we can also see the couple of days following election night, two massive moves and thats where the action is pausing thus far. We likely had a lot of action here, some people jumping in and others booking profits on the way out. An important intermediate level I think we should keep an eye on. We have been holding character change lately with the 10 day and have room to $18,655 where the 20 day is and $18,463 where the 200 sma is, also very notable levels, a revisit of the 200 day would be about a 3% move and we likely see bulls that missed this rally try to participate at that level.
NVDA the head of this AI rally as far as I am concerned is set up very similar to the NASDAQ which I have been discussing. We have the major pivotal point of $150, character change so far holding the 10 day, and the 20 and 200 sma nearby below.
Simple statement here, if the markets going to fly high here as I have been thinking is likely to occur here, we need to take out those two levels above, the $150 level for NVDA and the $20,000 level for the NASDAQ.
TSLA is my best idea still, though it fizzled a bit at the $350 level, it’s still showing character change thus far at the 10 day. It’s about 11% above the one trillion level and will remain more than bullish as long as we are acting orderly and holding one trillion.
A stock I feel may be ready to higher in orderly fashion is GOOGL, massive wick Friday to close above 2 trillion market cap and the 200 sma.
MSFT continuing in lockout fashion.
AVGO back at breakout territory this week and reports earnings, also over the one trillion market cap, this is good news for semis.
TSM also right at one trillion market cap and holding a downside HVC of $192.31.
CRWD also doing everything right, teasing the breakout ahead of earnings this week, 16% or so above 100b market cap.
This setup in BOX is perfect for what we like and tend to follow, eyes on this one this week against the HVC the instant traction makes for a good story thus far.
Hard to be to bearish when you have stocks like PLTR holding character change and then blasting back off to highs.
HIMS turned back up here and may be ready, ideally it gets a bit tighter and side ways here before an entry attempt but prepare for wider ADR moves with this one.
Thats all I really have, still want to see the NASI come off before we get into digging too far into names, I guess I should add that BTC retest of $102-103k this week is a great one to keep an eye on before a move higher, also in the same realm of character change, has held up well lately while markets come in.