🎢 Overarching Themes
Trend: Market in Uptrend.
Narrative: The AI Bubble thesis is intact but we’re at a critical check-in point.
Market Cap Expansion 3 trillion & beyond: MSFT, NVDA, and AAPL.
Drivers: AI, robotics, crypto, cybersecurity, software — still leading.
📊 Weekly Themes:
Breakouts in NVDA and the Nasdaq remain intact.
Breath thrust of names pushing pivots?
AMD, HOOD, ALAB.
Nasdaq Composite $20,000, TSLA $350, NVDA $150.
These are the upside hurdles where our “AI Bubble” thesis comes alive.
📆 Earnings & Economic Calendar
Earnings: Nothing notable.
💭 Thoughts
So far, our speculation around the AI bubble has been to simplify the thesis down to just two things: NVDA and the Nasdaq 20,000 level. That approach has worked well — both are trading above their major pivotal points.
My read so far is that the market has chosen to ride the big, obvious AI names higher. The mid-cap or more speculative AI plays have yet to move in a meaningful way as a group. And to be fair, that’s been our focus for months now: the core of the AI bet should be on the largest names — NVDA, TSLA, etc. — with smaller spec names being optional, not foundational. In other words, NVDA or TSLA should make up the bulk of exposure when riding this potential bubble.
1. Defend the Breakouts
Now that we’re above our major pivotal levels in the leaders, our first priority is defense — making sure they hold. As long as NVDA and Nasdaq hold their breakouts, the setup remains intact.
Character change also continues to confirm strength — so we’ll stay focused there.
2. Watch the Coiled Setups
There are still plenty of names basing near the top of their ranges, but they haven’t yet triggered real breakouts or momentum. If NVDA and the Nasdaq continue to hold, we likely get a window of opportunity to enter some of these coiled setups and ride them meaningfully higher.
I still think we have some time before this phase fully plays out.
Initially, I thought this might coincide with a NASI (Nasdaq Summation Index) reset, and while we did start to see a turn lower, it never fully reset. That’s fine — because we also considered the possibility of a full-on lockout rally. If that’s what we’re in, then some of these bases could resolve higher without the clean retest structure we’re used to.
✅ Final Thoughts
I’ve been keeping things super simple in these updates, and this week I want to do the same.
As we get closer to the moment where that window of opportunity really presents itself, I’ll share a “Watchlist A” — a group of names I believe are best positioned to ride the next leg higher.
For now, a few early standouts to keep on your radar:
ALAB above $100
HOOD above $100
AMD over $144
And still — TSLA remains, in my view, the most undervalued and highest-potential name within the broader AI theme.
The Nasdaq is holding above the $20,000 level, and now the 20-day moving average has pushed above it as well — a subtle but encouraging detail for us.
NVDA is showing nice traction above the key $150 level we’ve been watching. The character change is clean on the chart now — solid follow-through.
One thing to note: NVDA is now above the $4 trillion market cap level. I don’t expect that to be a major issue, but it’s worth acknowledging.
The breakout happened so close to $5 trillion that I still don’t think that’ll mark the top — as I’ve been saying, this could push much higher if we’re truly in AI bubble territory. But we’ll cross that road when we get there.
AMD's character change is now playing out well, and we’re starting to see it push through key pivots. It’s a market favorite, so if it’s truly ready, it can move quickly.
We’ve been watching the $144 pivot, and it’s now pushing above it. The next minor level to watch is $148 — if it clears that, it’s likely ready for a more meaningful leg higher.
PLTR is pausing for now, but it remains one of the top-performing AI names so far, having led much of this move higher.
Let’s keep an eye on it to see if it starts to push again and whether the character change continues to hold.
TSLA, last but not least — despite all the headlines and drama, it continues to hold the $1 trillion level firmly, no matter what news gets thrown at it.
The next step, obviously, is to start clearing upside pivots — but the underlying strength here remains notable.
