🎢 Overarching Themes
Trend: Market in Uptrend but Facing Inflection
Narrative: The AI Bubble thesis is intact but we’re at a critical check-in point.
Drivers: AI, robotics, crypto, cybersecurity, software — still leading.
Market Cap Expansion 3 trillion & beyond: MSFT, NVDA, and AAPL.
📊 Weekly Themes:
Market and NVDA above their pivotal point, how do they act here and can it stay above?
Short week, market closed Friday.
Nasdaq Composite $20,000, TSLA $350, NVDA $150.
These are the upside hurdles where our “AI Bubble” thesis comes alive.
📆 Earnings & Economic Calendar
Earnings: Nothing notable,
Economic Calendar
💭 Market Thoughts
The last few weeks were all about simplification and patience as we waited below key breakout points. Now we’ve arrived — and our 1998-style “lockout rally” scenario is playing out. We've moved off the ~$5,000 S&P base and could be entering the early stages of an AI-fueled melt-up.
Key Levels:
Nasdaq Composite above $20,000 – critical inflection point.
NVDA: $150 pivot has triggered; now we monitor for stability above that level. Revisit is ok.
TSLA: 1T market cap = ~$310; needs to clear $350 (major HVC), but true breakout is $500. Still lagging, but potential is there.
🧠 Caution: Watch for a "reel & bait" move — where headlines cheer “new all-time highs” and retail inflows become exit liquidity for institutions.
Also, beware of buying obvious breakout levels — the market loves to punish late entries at clear resistance.
Still, if we’re in a true 1998 setup, the breakout can carry on in lockout rally fashion. Right now, NASI is neutral, not confirming or denying. I place more weight on the extremes more than anything for the NASI, we likely make our way down to 0-30 still if I had to guess, how that plays out, I am not sure. Its not mandatory but back pocket thought.
Indices at ATHs: Hovering above $20,000 — pivotal zone. If rejected, be cautious but don’t panic out on first signs of weakness. Lets let character change dictate.
Institutional Stocks:
NVDA obviously the highlight for us here with the breakout and push through the pivotal point of $150, it’s been inline with our analysis, now we need to be on watch for any sketchy price action that arises, I am fine with a breakout revisit but wouldn’t love it hanging out below the $150 level for too long.
AAPL though it’s been very quiet and dull, holding the 3 trillion market cap. It’s starting to get tight suggesting a move is on the horizon. Don’t want to overthink this one as it’s been irrelevant despite the fact that it’s holding 3t.
MSFT, in the name of the psychological price levels we watch, MSFT at $500 here is an interesting one to watch. We pretty much had a one year base so I don’t believe we had this long of a base just to breakout, run to $500 and then top, could be wrong though.
GOOGL as you can see from the weekly chart it’s acting a bit sloppy for the last year but starting to come together and picked up the slack from our commentary last week.
AMZN is one I have been saying own it and don’t trade it for a while, finally firmed up and pushed through some pivots, a good overall sign.
META on the verge of a fresh breakout.
TSLA of course, fairly right despite the small squeeze and reversal it has last week, holding one trillion, will just let it do it’s thing here.
Growth Names:
My “AI Bubble” picks were TSLA, NVDA, AMD, and PLTR. I still like those as a focus group despite the extension from PLTR as of recent.
A few other names I think are interesting. Semiconductor names have popped up recently, I touched on SMH recently and that has emerged, these are obviously strong names and many growth names fall into this category.
AMD accelerated through our $112 HVC and now has another at $144 to keep an eye on.
ALAB has been wild as of recent under this $100 level but above it, could get going.
ARM back to the top of the range, has serious velocity and getting close to a big breakout here.
COIN just under the 100b level, a push and hold above could signal much more to come from this name.
MU reported earnings last week and a bit of a muted reaction during market hours, it ran hard before earnings, one to watch as it digests this recent move.
NET nice right side of it’s base as we had been speculating here for sometime, close to a breakout and looks like it wants 100b market cap.
RKLB a HVC from Friday to keep an eye on and use as a pivot.
SE has been basing for a few months but looks like it’s starting to turn back up, can place this one against the $154 HVC.
SHOP perhaps starting to get into some acceleration on the right side of its base on the weekly.
✅ Final Thoughts
This is the moment we’ve been preparing for — key breakout levels in view or already breached.
The goal now: Observe character, stay balanced, and don’t chase.
This could still be the beginning of a powerful leg higher. Or a trap.
Either way, you’re ready.