Weekend Review
General admission seating has started, caution of reel and bait.
🎢 Overarching Themes
Confirmed uptrend
Inflation, Valuations, QT
WAR
Small caps > large caps for the next leg higher
🗓 Weekly Themes
NVDA HVC and $500
AAPL 3T
Notable growth stock action (at resistance/breakouts)
Peaking momentum/overbought? vs Window of Opportunity?
Thoughts:
Is the window of opportunity opening or is reel and bait occurring? The scenario for the window of opportunity opening is that growth stocks are likely to take off, and some will breakout after being down 50-80%... This means if you have missed this move thus far, fear not, there is plenty of juice left in this lemon.
On the other hand, we might be saying that classic reel and bait is on display. While the market is making great headlines, it’s simply the needed liquidity to ring the cash register.
Whichever stance you take, the main flag I want to cement into the ground is that all time breakout levels for the most widely held stocks are viewed by all here, just be aware that everyone sees AAPL at ATHs, or NVDA at the $500 level, and be cautious to not be someone’s exit plan. Our thought process around small>large companies favoring our capital seems to be correct so far, therefore I recommend continuing to press this theme. With that being said, NVDA and TSLA are still great vehicles for speculative dollars and view those a little differently for the small>large scenario, think those are still ok.
Indices:
Monster move for the indices from the recent October low, not a single down week since. It’s easy to say the market is “hot” under this scenario, McClellan Oscillator is at 67… A breakout and the $5000 level are within striking distance 5-6%.
The Nasdaq is a similar story, with the QQQ less than 1% from the breakout level following a 17ish% bounce.
I suppose what I was saying in my general thoughts above, is after the Nasdaq has bounced 17%, about to breakout, news is practically begging you to buy, I wouldn’t call this a low risk entry, more so an obvious entry, and as I believe Soros once said, the obvious is obviously wrong. I am not saying that is definitely the case, rather something to be aware of.
Institutional Stocks:
AAPL holding 3T and looking constructive. Top one to watch for reel and bait.
MSFT was first to breakout and since then has digest the move well, watch this one for clues…
AMZN forming the right side of a base here, I am watching this one on weakness.
GOOGL has been sloppy but as new capital enters the market, eyeing if this ones action picks up to be more constructive going forward. This one is in the lower risk bucket.
Growth Stocks:
Besides the trap scenario I’v outlined, I am interested in growth names.
IOT through the HVC is worth a shot.
RIVN showing some initial velocity, it’s still in the thick of it but one to being to watch and possibly add into weakness if buy points dont become liquidity points.
PLTR pulled back at the breakout level, make it or break it but is now a lower risk entry.
DASH through $100 is worth considering.
Calmer version of solar exposure via TAN, I like this through $50.
ARM stretched, doing the right things .
NET poking its head out, I want to see stability in here and even the $100 level acting as a magnet.
SHOP similar story as NET, poking its head out, getting a bit more on the obvious side here but stability would be positive.
PATH top of the list for me, tried it Friday, inside day so I let it go, which is a sign for my cautious optimism.
I want names like PATH, SHOP, IOT, PLTR to work for me but if I am going to get 200% long, even in the short term, I am going to need TSLA to be able to hold a significant portion of that exposure to me, maybe it’s NVDA but same story really.
