🎢 Overarching Themes
Trend: Market in Uptrend
AI Bubble: Still early innings, lead by themes in - AI, robotics, crypto, cybersecurity, and software.
3 Trillion Club & Market Cap Expansion: MSFT, NVDA, and AAPL.
Outlook: Expecting a choppy and volatile 2025 as these trends evolve. Possibly a smoother second half of the year as uncertainty diminishes.
Update (4/20/2025): I believe we’re approaching a point where uncertainty may begin to decrease rather than increase. It’s still early, but the trend seems to be shifting in that direction.
📊 Weekly Themes:
Character Change (third week in a row).
200 day and 12 month ema, long-term moving averages/pivots.
📆 Events
Economic Calendar:
Monday: Federal Budget Balance.
Tuesday: Core CPI, CPU.
Wednesday: Crude Oil Inventories.
Thursday: Initial Jobless Claims, Core PPI, Fed Chair Powell Speaks.
🔍 Key Earnings Reports to Watch
WMT, BABA, CSCO, SONY, DE, AMAT, SE, NU, JD, TTWO, CRWV, BEKE, CYBR, ONON, MNDY, DT, MNDY, DOCS, DVA, RBC, CAVA, MMYT, BIRK, TME, LOAR, GLBE, ASTS, LEGN, OKLO, ZI, DLO, UA, SMR, PLUG.
Thoughts:
Market Internals: I need to start here as some of these are getting a bit “frothy” as we approach the 200 day.
McClellan Oscillator: 96, 95 is where things get “frothy.”
NASI: 83.67, 90 is where things get “frothy.”
% of Stocks above their 40 day PMA: 55.37, really just want to highlight the degree of change here as we under 10 first week of April which is a dramatic low so we’ve come a long way.
I want to just spell out the most important pieces and keep things concise here as these levels are important here.
The S&P500 was able to clear it’s major April 9th HVC that we were digging into last week, great sign and it held well. Additionally, the last two weeks the theme has been character change and we got two downside holds, once at the 20 day and once at the 10 day.
Rubber meets the road here at the 200 sma as a few things have occurred. First thing is that the internals are getting hot here, it’s more of a place to hold and monitor positions, keep an eye out for danger zones to the downside than to be buying into the 200 day, though Ill highlight a few names later that seem decent down here.
Here is a look at the Nasdaq on the monthly timeframe, it’s .9% above the 12 month ema. For reference, I think the 12 month ema acts much like the 200 sma, slightly different look…
In regards to our “AI Bubble” I think NVDA and this Deepseek HVC is probably the most important level for if we are headed higher or not… If you want to keep it super simple, this is the level for higher in my opinion.
If I had to say the second most important piece of this “AI Bubble” I would say TSLA one trillion, which is roughly $308-311ish. Nice to see it over the 200 day but 1 trillion is the key in this one in my opinion.
MSFT popped back over the 3t market cap level again in decent volume and good gap %, it held immediately which is a great sign and a form of character change, especially for MSFT as it’s price action has been very sloppy for sometime.
META also gapping higher and holding instantly, through it’s April 9th HVC as well.
AAPL not getting the same love, a hair below the three trillion market cap, and below it’s April 9th HVC.
PLTR has been a leader, despite the positive price action last few weeks, we mentioned if it gapped down on earnings, It would probably be a decent entry, here it is with a downside HVC that has worked well. Not out of the woods yet, so far so good through, we watch for character change here.
HOOD a HVC hold from earnings and character change thus far, coming into 50b market cap.
AVGO another one thats just a couple percent away from 1 trillion market cap. If these are able to push they are likely a sign of more to come. We also don’t want to see all out failure at these levels.
AMD seemingly starting to firm up here at $100, second attempt over the 50 day, over $112 looks like it can go to $120 quickly.
Lastly, my thought is China and US agree to a deal and it seems like fuel on the fire.